Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections, necessitating air-freighted shipments to meet demand. The hope is that Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges and will avoid a repeat performance.

The upcoming Switch 2 has generated significant online buzz, frequently trending on social media. However, this anticipation doesn't guarantee equivalent sales success. Several crucial factors will influence the console's 2025 performance, including its launch timing and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.

Piscatella's projection anticipates the Switch 2 capturing roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to high anticipated demand, but the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparations remains unclear. The company may have taken proactive steps to avoid a repeat of the original Switch's launch shortages, mirroring Sony's PS5 launch strategy.

While optimistic about the Switch 2's sales potential, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its top spot in US console sales. The Switch 2's hype is a positive factor, but the PS5's anticipated 2025 release of Grand Theft Auto 6, along with other high-profile titles, presents stiff competition. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on the quality of its hardware and the strength of its launch titles.

Summary

• Piscatella predicts 4.3 million Switch 2 US sales in 2025 (assuming a first-half launch).
• He anticipates the Switch 2 to be a strong contender but forecasts the PS5 retaining the US sales lead.
• The Switch 2's success will depend heavily on launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game library.